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MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

2-3  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sun, Oct 20 • 1:00 PM ET
Lucas Oil Stadium
View Odds Details →

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

3-3  |  Home

16
Key Game
Storm Duck
KEY GAME

Storm Duck

#29 | Cornerback
@
Rigoberto Sanchez
KEY GAME

Rigoberto Sanchez

#8 | Punter
Player
Storm Duck None-None
Rigoberto Sanchez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
COLTS
0%
DOLPHINS --
COLTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.4
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.4 points (Indianapolis)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 ColtsIND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

29.8%

Colts Cover

70.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IND -7.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)

MIA By 1-6 points

12.6%

MIA By 7-13 points

9.2%

IND By 1-6 points

16.3%

IND By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
12.91
MIAMI
20.35
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
20
MIAMI
27
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Colts Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.4
D
Sim Colts (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 33.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 7, 2025 MIA @ IND 8 - 33
Oct 20, 2024 MIA @ IND 10 - 16
Oct 3, 2021 IND @ MIA 27 - 17
Nov 10, 2019 MIA @ IND 16 - 12
Nov 25, 2018 MIA @ IND 24 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +36.0% more
Indianapolis: 227.0 vs Miami: 166.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +20.0% more
Indianapolis: 0.4 vs Miami: 0.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +19.4% more
Indianapolis: 5.4 vs Miami: 4.5
Total Yards (L5) +13.5% more
Indianapolis: 337.3 vs Miami: 297.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 12.9 10
IND Score 20.4 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 18.2 16.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 227.0 / 166.9 129.0 / 149.0
Rushing Yards 110.3 / 130.3 155.0 / 188.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.31 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 337.3 / 297.3 284.0 / 337.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 4.5 4.7 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
IND Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
MIA
IND
MIA
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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