Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Vikings DET @ MIN

DETROIT

LIONSDET

4-1  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sun, Oct 20 • 1:00 PM ET
U.S. Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

5-0  |  Home

29
Key Game
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
@
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Jack Fox None-None
Will Reichard None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
VIKINGS
100%
LIONS --
VIKINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.1
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.1 points (Detroit)
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 VikingsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

64.2%

Vikings Cover

35.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DET -5.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-6 points

16.9%

DET By 7-13 points

18.6%

MIN By 1-6 points

14.1%

MIN By 7-13 points

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
29.24
DETROIT
24.13
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
24
DETROIT
28
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Vikings Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.1
D
Sim Vikings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 53.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 25, 2025 DET @ MIN 10 - 23
Nov 2, 2025 MIN @ DET 27 - 24
Jan 5, 2025 MIN @ DET 9 - 31
Oct 20, 2024 DET @ MIN 31 - 29
Jan 7, 2024 MIN @ DET 20 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.5% more
Detroit: 156.8 vs Minnesota: 104.3
Total Yards (L5) +26.4% more
Detroit: 428.0 vs Minnesota: 315.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +24.4% more
Detroit: 6.8 vs Minnesota: 5.1
First Downs (L5) +22.8% more
Detroit: 24.3 vs Minnesota: 18.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 29.2 31
MIN Score 24.1 29
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.8 / 24.3 16.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 210.7 / 271.2 244.0 / 247.0
Rushing Yards 104.3 / 156.8 139.0 / 144.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 315.1 / 428.0 383.0 / 391.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 0.5 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 6.8 7.4 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
DET
MIN
DET
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
67% 2-1-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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