Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Packers HOU @ GB

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

5-1  |  Road

22
FINAL
Sun, Oct 20 • 1:00 PM ET
Lambeau Field
View Odds Details →

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

4-2  |  Home

24
Key Game
Calen Bullock
KEY GAME

Calen Bullock

#2 | Safety
@
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
Player
Calen Bullock None-None
Daniel Whelan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
PACKERS
100%
TEXANS --
PACKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.4 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 PackersGB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

70.2%

Packers Cover

29.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -7.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

16.3%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.4%

GB By 1-6 points

12.6%

GB By 7-13 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
27.63
HOUSTON
20.22
GREEN BAY
Simulated Score
24
HOUSTON
27
GREEN BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Packers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.4
D
Sim Packers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2024 HOU @ GB 22 - 24
Oct 25, 2020 GB @ HOU 35 - 20
Dec 4, 2016 HOU @ GB 13 - 21
Oct 14, 2012 GB @ HOU 42 - 24
Dec 7, 2008 HOU @ GB 24 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.3% more
Green Bay: 155.3 vs Houston: 124.0
First Downs (L5) +14.2% more
Green Bay: 22.4 vs Houston: 19.6
Turnovers (L5) +11.6% more
Green Bay: 1.4 vs Houston: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 27.6 22
GB Score 20.2 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 19.6 18.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 246.4 / 250.5 195.0 / 55.0
Rushing Yards 155.3 / 124.0 82.0 / 142.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 401.7 / 374.4 277.0 / 197.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 3.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.8 4.9 / 3.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
GB Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
GB Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GB
HOU
GB
HOU
ML
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
0% 0-3-1
0% 0-4
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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