Home / NFL Projections NFL / Panthers @ Commanders CAR @ WSH

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

1-5  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sun, Oct 20 • 4:05 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

4-2  |  Home

40
Key Game
Damien Lewis
KEY GAME

Damien Lewis

#68 | Guard
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Damien Lewis None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
COMMANDERS
0%
PANTHERS --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Washington)
PanthersCAR (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

48.8%

Commanders Cover

51.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WSH -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

CAR By 1-6 points

16.3%

CAR By 7-13 points

15.1%

WSH By 1-6 points

16.6%

WSH By 7-13 points

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
17.64
CAROLINA
18.06
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
20
CAROLINA
24
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Commanders Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commanders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.4
D
Sim Commanders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2024 CAR @ WSH 7 - 40
Nov 21, 2021 WSH @ CAR 27 - 21
Dec 27, 2020 CAR @ WSH 20 - 13
Dec 1, 2019 WSH @ CAR 29 - 21
Oct 14, 2018 CAR @ WSH 17 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +17.2% more
Washington: 5.9 vs Carolina: 5.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +16.0% more
Washington: 227.3 vs Carolina: 196.0
Total Yards (L5) +15.1% more
Washington: 362.1 vs Carolina: 314.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.5% more
Washington: 134.8 vs Carolina: 118.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 17.6 7
WSH Score 18.1 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.4 / 18.2 26.0 / 10.0
Net Passing Yards 227.3 / 196.0 207.0 / 85.0
Rushing Yards 134.8 / 118.8 214.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 362.1 / 314.7 421.0 / 180.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.8 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 5.1 6.7 / 4.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CAR
WSH
CAR
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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