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KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

5-0  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sun, Oct 20 • 4:25 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

3-3  |  Home

18
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Kevin Givens
KEY GAME

Kevin Givens

#90 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Kevin Givens None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
0%
📊
49ERS
100%
CHIEFS --
49ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.3
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.3 points (Kansas City)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 49ersSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

64.8%

49ers Cover

35.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KC -5.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-6 points

16.8%

KC By 7-13 points

18.7%

SF By 1-6 points

13.9%

SF By 7-13 points

11.0%

AI Model Projected Score
26.42
KANSAS CITY
21.09
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS CITY
27
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chiefs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 49ers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chiefs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.3
D
Sim 49ers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 20, 2024 KC @ SF 28 - 18
Feb 11, 2024 SF @ KC 22 - 25
Oct 23, 2022 KC @ SF 44 - 23
Feb 2, 2020 SF @ KC 20 - 31
Sep 23, 2018 SF @ KC 27 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +9.7% more
Kansas City: 1.4 vs San Francisco: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.4% more
San Francisco: 171.5 vs Kansas City: 123.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +22.3% more
San Francisco: 6.9 vs Kansas City: 5.6
Total Yards (L5) +13.4% more
San Francisco: 429.7 vs Kansas City: 379.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 26.4 28
SF Score 21.1 18
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.8 / 22.3 19.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 258.2 / 255.9 209.0 / 145.0
Rushing Yards 171.5 / 123.1 101.0 / 184.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.18 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.6 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 429.7 / 379.0 310.0 / 329.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.4 3.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.9 / 5.6 5.5 / 4.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
SF
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
KC
SF
KC
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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