Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Steelers NYJ @ PIT

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

2-4  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sun, Oct 20 • 8:20 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

4-2  |  Home

37
Key Game
Minkah Fitzpatrick
KEY GAME

Minkah Fitzpatrick

#29 | Safety
@
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
Player
Minkah Fitzpatrick None-None
Chris Boswell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
0%
📊
STEELERS
100%
JETS --
STEELERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
35.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (New York)
JetsNYJ (-3.5) 0 SteelersPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

51.5%

Steelers Cover

48.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NYJ -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYJ)

NYJ By 1-6 points

16.6%

NYJ By 7-13 points

15.8%

PIT By 1-6 points

16.3%

PIT By 7-13 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
17.93
NEW YORK
17.41
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
16
NEW YORK
23
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Steelers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jets (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.5
D
Sim Steelers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 35.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 39.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 7, 2025 PIT @ NYJ 34 - 32
Oct 20, 2024 NYJ @ PIT 15 - 37
Oct 2, 2022 NYJ @ PIT 24 - 20
Dec 22, 2019 PIT @ NYJ 10 - 16
Oct 9, 2016 NYJ @ PIT 13 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.1% more
New York: 1.4 vs Pittsburgh: 0.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +28.4% more
New York: 226.2 vs Pittsburgh: 162.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +50.3% more
Pittsburgh: 137.7 vs New York: 91.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 17.9 15
PIT Score 17.4 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 18.6 21.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 162.1 / 226.2 260.0 / 269.0
Rushing Yards 137.7 / 91.6 149.0 / 54.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 299.7 / 317.8 409.0 / 323.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 5.0 6.2 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
NYJ
PIT
NYJ
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Garrett Wilson's Accountability Shines Amid Jets' 1-3 Start, But…
si 30 minutes ago
Steelers' Michael Pittman Jr. Sidelined Multiple Weeks with Foot…
newsweek 6 hours, 32 minutes ago
Commanders Roll Dice: Jayden Daniels to Start vs. Giants Despite…
newsweek 6 hours, 42 minutes ago
Ronald Acuña Jr. Gets Emotional After Braves' Postseason Exit, E…
ajc 18 hours, 41 minutes ago
Jayden Daniels Returns to Full Practice as Commanders Grapple wi…
headtopics 18 hours, 59 minutes ago