Home / NFL Projections NFL / Ravens @ Buccaneers BAL @ TB

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

4-2  |  Road

41
FINAL
Mon, Oct 21 • 8:15 PM ET
Raymond James Stadium
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

4-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Tavius Robinson
KEY GAME

Tavius Robinson

#95 | Linebacker
@
Chase McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Chase McLaughlin

#4 | Place kicker
Player
Tavius Robinson None-None
Chase McLaughlin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
100%
📊
BUCCANEERS
0%
RAVENS --
BUCCANEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Tampa Bay)
RavensBAL (-3.5) 0 BuccaneersTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

43.0%

Buccaneers Cover

57.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TB -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

BAL By 1-6 points

15.5%

BAL By 7-13 points

13.4%

TB By 1-6 points

16.9%

TB By 7-13 points

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
22.39
BALTIMORE
24.87
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
20
BALTIMORE
24
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.5
D
Sim Buccaneers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 21, 2024 BAL @ TB 41 - 31
Oct 27, 2022 BAL @ TB 27 - 22
Dec 16, 2018 TB @ BAL 12 - 20
Oct 12, 2014 BAL @ TB 48 - 17
Nov 28, 2010 TB @ BAL 10 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +64.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.6 vs Baltimore: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.2% more
Baltimore: 195.2 vs Tampa Bay: 171.4
Total Yards (L5) +8.0% more
Baltimore: 460.7 vs Tampa Bay: 423.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 22.4 41
TB Score 24.9 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.6 / 25.8 28.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 252.2 / 265.5 356.0 / 264.0
Rushing Yards 171.4 / 195.2 125.0 / 244.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.65 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 423.7 / 460.7 481.0 / 508.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 6.6 / 7.1 6.2 / 9.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
TB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
BAL
TB
BAL
ML
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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