Home / NFL Projections NFL / Packers @ Jaguars GB @ JAX

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

5-2  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Oct 27 • 1:00 PM ET
EverBank Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

2-5  |  Home

27
Key Game
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
@
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
Player
Daniel Whelan None-None
Logan Cooke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
PACKERS --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.9
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.9 points (Jacksonville)
PackersGB (-3.5) 0 JaguarsJAX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Packers Cover

39.2%

Jaguars Cover

60.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JAX -3.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

GB By 1-6 points

14.8%

GB By 7-13 points

12.2%

JAX By 1-6 points

17.0%

JAX By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
23.59
GREEN BAY
27.44
JACKSONVILLE
Simulated Score
20
GREEN BAY
24
JACKSONVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.9
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 27, 2024 GB @ JAX 30 - 27
Nov 15, 2020 JAX @ GB 20 - 24
Sep 11, 2016 GB @ JAX 27 - 23
Oct 28, 2012 JAX @ GB 15 - 24
Dec 14, 2008 GB @ JAX 16 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +46.8% more
Green Bay: 1.9 vs Jacksonville: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GB Score 23.6 30
JAX Score 27.4 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.8 / 20.9 19.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 218.1 / 229.3 299.0 / 252.0
Rushing Yards 127.0 / 130.9 91.0 / 170.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.11 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 345.1 / 360.2 390.0 / 422.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.9 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 5.7 7.0 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JAX
GB
JAX
GB
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
0% 0-3-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
TTL
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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