NEW YORK
JETSNYJ
2-5 | Road
22
NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTSNE
1-6 | Home
25
Key Game
KEY GAME
Will McDonald IV
#9 | Defensive End@
KEY GAME
Bryce Baringer
#17 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Will McDonald IV | None-None |
| Bryce Baringer | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
0%
PATRIOTS
100%
JETS
--
PATRIOTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
29.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.8 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NYJ -7.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYJ)
NYJ By 1-6 points
16.2%
NYJ By 7-13 points
19.5%
NE By 1-6 points
12.3%
NE By 7-13 points
8.9%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
18.38
NEW YORK
New England
10.58
NEW ENGLAND
Simulated Score
New York
17
NEW YORK
New England
20
NEW ENGLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Jets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Patriots
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Jets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.8
D
Sim
Patriots (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 29.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 37.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 28, 2025
NE @ NYJ
42 - 10
Nov 13, 2025
NYJ @ NE
14 - 27
Oct 27, 2024
NYJ @ NE
22 - 25
Sep 19, 2024
NE @ NYJ
3 - 24
Jan 7, 2024
NYJ @ NE
17 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+21.3% more
New York: 240.5
vs
New England: 189.2
Total Yards (L5)
+14.5% more
New York: 319.6
vs
New England: 273.1
Turnovers (L5)
+14.4% more
New York: 1.6
vs
New England: 1.4
First Downs (L5)
+13.7% more
New York: 18.1
vs
New England: 15.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score
18.4
22
NE Score
10.6
25
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
15.6 / 18.1
19.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards
189.2 / 240.5
136.0 / 224.0
Rushing Yards
83.9 / 79.1
112.0 / 112.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.3
0.47 / 0.4
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards
273.1 / 319.6
248.0 / 336.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 1.6
0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play
4.8 / 5.3
3.9 / 5.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +1.9
NE
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ
2-1-1
(66.7%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +1.9
NE
2-1-1
(66.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -4.3
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NE
NYJ
NE
NYJ
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
ATS
33%
1-2-1
33%
1-2-1
33%
1-2-1
33%
1-2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
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