Home / NFL Projections NFL / Cardinals @ Dolphins ARI @ MIA

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

3-4  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sun, Oct 27 • 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

2-4  |  Home

27
Key Game
Blake Gillikin
KEY GAME

Blake Gillikin

#12 | Punter
@
Malik Washington
KEY GAME

Malik Washington

#6 | Wide Receiver
Player
Blake Gillikin None-None
Malik Washington None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
100%
📊
DOLPHINS
0%
CARDINALS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
25.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Miami)
CardinalsARI (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

44.8%

Dolphins Cover

55.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

ARI By 1-6 points

15.8%

ARI By 7-13 points

13.9%

MIA By 1-6 points

16.8%

MIA By 7-13 points

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
11.74
ARIZONA
13.57
MIAMI
Simulated Score
28
ARIZONA
17
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dolphins Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dolphins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim Cardinals (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 25.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 27, 2024 ARI @ MIA 28 - 27
Nov 8, 2020 MIA @ ARI 34 - 31
Dec 11, 2016 ARI @ MIA 23 - 26
Sep 30, 2012 MIA @ ARI 21 - 24
Sep 14, 2008 MIA @ ARI 10 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +11.3% more
Miami: 1.6 vs Arizona: 1.4
Yards Per Play (L5) +19.0% more
Arizona: 5.8 vs Miami: 4.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +9.1% more
Arizona: 177.0 vs Miami: 161.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 11.7 28
MIA Score 13.6 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 19.4 22.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 161.0 / 177.0 227.0 / 307.0
Rushing Yards 149.5 / 152.3 150.0 / 82.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.73 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 310.5 / 329.3 377.0 / 389.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 5.8 5.9 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ARI
MIA
ARI
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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