Home / NFL Projections NFL / Saints @ Chargers NO @ LAC

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

2-5  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Oct 27 • 4:05 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

CHARGERSLAC

3-3  |  Home

26
Key Game
Stone Smartt
KEY GAME

Stone Smartt

#-- | Tight End
@
Cameron Dicker
KEY GAME

Cameron Dicker

#11 | Place kicker
Player
Stone Smartt None-None
Cameron Dicker None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SAINTS
0%
📊
CHARGERS
100%
SAINTS --
CHARGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.7
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.7 points (New Orleans)
SaintsNO (-3.5) 0 ChargersLAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Saints Cover

68.5%

Chargers Cover

31.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around NO -6.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NO By 1-6 points

16.5%

NO By 7-13 points

19.2%

LAC By 1-6 points

13.0%

LAC By 7-13 points

9.8%

AI Model Projected Score
22.31
NEW ORLEANS
15.58
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
24
NEW ORLEANS
27
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Saints Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chargers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Saints (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.7
D
Sim Chargers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 10, 2025 NO @ LAC 13 - 27
Oct 27, 2024 NO @ LAC 8 - 26
Oct 12, 2020 LAC @ NO 27 - 30
Oct 2, 2016 NO @ LAC 35 - 34
Oct 7, 2012 LAC @ NO 24 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
New Orleans: 1.8 vs Los Angeles: 0.9
Net Passing Yards (L5) +18.2% more
Los Angeles: 230.6 vs New Orleans: 195.0
Total Yards (L5) +11.2% more
Los Angeles: 323.6 vs New Orleans: 291.0
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.4% more
Los Angeles: 5.1 vs New Orleans: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 22.3 8
LAC Score 15.6 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 17.5 19.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 230.6 / 195.0 256.0 / 249.0
Rushing Yards 93.0 / 96.0 122.0 / 117.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.12
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 323.6 / 291.0 378.0 / 366.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.8 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 4.6 5.9 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
LAC
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
LAC
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -9.8 ATS +/-: -10.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
LAC
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAC
NO
LAC
NO
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
0% 0-4
0% 0-3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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