Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Seahawks BUF @ SEA

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

5-2  |  Road

31
FINAL
Sun, Oct 27 • 4:05 PM ET
Lumen Field
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

SEAHAWKSSEA

4-3  |  Home

10
Key Game
Tyler Bass
KEY GAME

Tyler Bass

#16 | Place kicker
@
Michael Dickson
KEY GAME

Michael Dickson

#4 | Punter
Player
Tyler Bass None-None
Michael Dickson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
100%
📊
SEAHAWKS
0%
BILLS --
SEAHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Seattle)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 SeahawksSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

48.0%

Seahawks Cover

52.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SEA -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

BUF By 1-6 points

16.2%

BUF By 7-13 points

14.8%

SEA By 1-6 points

16.6%

SEA By 7-13 points

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
24.67
BUFFALO
25.37
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
23
BUFFALO
27
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seahawks Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seahawks Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seahawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.7
D
Sim Seahawks (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 27, 2024 BUF @ SEA 31 - 10
Nov 8, 2020 SEA @ BUF 34 - 44
Nov 7, 2016 BUF @ SEA 25 - 31
Dec 16, 2012 SEA @ BUF 50 - 17
Sep 7, 2008 SEA @ BUF 10 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +105.0% more
Seattle: 1.2 vs Buffalo: 0.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +17.5% more
Seattle: 268.1 vs Buffalo: 228.1
First Downs (L5) +12.6% more
Seattle: 21.6 vs Buffalo: 19.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.6% more
Buffalo: 114.1 vs Seattle: 92.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 24.7 31
SEA Score 25.4 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 19.2 17.0 / 29.0
Net Passing Yards 268.1 / 228.1 201.0 / 281.0
Rushing Yards 92.8 / 114.1 32.0 / 164.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.14 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.37 / 0.63
Total Yards 360.9 / 342.2 233.0 / 445.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.2 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 6.0 5.0 / 6.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
SEA
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
SEA
1-1-2 (50.0%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
SEA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
BUF
SEA
BUF
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 1-1-2
25% 1-3
50% 1-1-2
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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