Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Raiders KC @ LV

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

6-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Oct 27 • 4:25 PM ET
Allegiant Stadium
View Odds Details →

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-5  |  Home

20
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
AJ Cole None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
0%
📊
RAIDERS
100%
CHIEFS --
RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Kansas City)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 RaidersLV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

65.3%

Raiders Cover

34.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KC -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-6 points

16.8%

KC By 7-13 points

18.8%

LV By 1-6 points

13.8%

LV By 7-13 points

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
22.91
KANSAS CITY
17.42
LAS VEGAS
Simulated Score
17
KANSAS CITY
27
LAS VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chiefs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raiders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chiefs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.5
D
Sim Raiders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 KC @ LV 30 - 27
Jan 4, 2026 KC @ LV 12 - 14
Oct 19, 2025 LV @ KC 0 - 31
Nov 29, 2024 LV @ KC 17 - 19
Oct 27, 2024 KC @ LV 27 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.0% more
Kansas City: 143.4 vs Las Vegas: 98.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
Kansas City: 0.5 vs Las Vegas: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +16.5% more
Kansas City: 22.2 vs Las Vegas: 18.5
Total Yards (L5) +16.4% more
Kansas City: 362.3 vs Las Vegas: 302.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 22.9 27
LV Score 17.4 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.5 / 22.2 15.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 204.0 / 218.9 195.0 / 252.0
Rushing Yards 98.9 / 143.4 33.0 / 82.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.75
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 302.9 / 362.3 228.0 / 334.0
Turnovers 2.8 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.7 / 5.3 4.1 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
LV
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LV
KC
LV
KC
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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