Home / NFL Projections NFL / Panthers @ Broncos CAR @ DEN

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

1-6  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sun, Oct 27 • 4:25 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

4-3  |  Home

28
Key Game
Claudin Cherelus
KEY GAME

Claudin Cherelus

#53 | Linebacker
@
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
Player
Claudin Cherelus None-None
Wil Lutz None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
0%
📊
BRONCOS
100%
PANTHERS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Carolina)
PanthersCAR (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

53.7%

Broncos Cover

46.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CAR -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)

CAR By 1-6 points

16.8%

CAR By 7-13 points

16.3%

DEN By 1-6 points

16.0%

DEN By 7-13 points

14.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20.62
CAROLINA
19.31
DENVER
Simulated Score
20
CAROLINA
23
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Panthers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Panthers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 27, 2024 CAR @ DEN 14 - 28
Nov 27, 2022 DEN @ CAR 10 - 23
Dec 13, 2020 DEN @ CAR 32 - 27
Sep 8, 2016 CAR @ DEN 20 - 21
Feb 7, 2016 CAR @ DEN 10 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +36.2% more
Carolina: 1.9 vs Denver: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.1% more
Denver: 147.5 vs Carolina: 110.8
Total Yards (L5) +19.0% more
Denver: 321.1 vs Carolina: 269.8
First Downs (L5) +17.1% more
Denver: 18.1 vs Carolina: 15.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 20.6 14
DEN Score 19.3 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.1 / 15.5 23.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 173.6 / 159.0 298.0 / 215.0
Rushing Yards 147.5 / 110.8 102.0 / 69.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.65 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 321.1 / 269.8 400.0 / 284.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.9 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 4.8 5.5 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
CAR
DEN
CAR
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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