CHICAGO
BEARSCHI
4-2 | Road
15
WASHINGTON
COMMANDERSWSH
5-2 | Home
18
Key Game
KEY GAME
Tory Taylor
#19 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Tress Way
#10 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Tory Taylor | None-None |
| Tress Way | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
COMMANDERS
100%
BEARS
--
COMMANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around CHI -6.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)
CHI By 1-6 points
16.7%
CHI By 7-13 points
19.0%
WSH By 1-6 points
13.5%
WSH By 7-13 points
10.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
30.84
CHICAGO
Washington
24.75
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Chicago
20
CHICAGO
Washington
24
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Commanders
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bears (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.1
D
Sim
Commanders (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 55.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 13, 2025
CHI @ WSH
25 - 24
Oct 27, 2024
CHI @ WSH
15 - 18
Oct 5, 2023
CHI @ WSH
40 - 20
Oct 13, 2022
WSH @ CHI
12 - 7
Sep 23, 2019
CHI @ WSH
31 - 15
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+33.0% more
Chicago: 0.9
vs
Washington: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5)
+28.4% more
Washington: 161.2
vs
Chicago: 125.5
Yards Per Play (L5)
+15.9% more
Washington: 6.2
vs
Chicago: 5.3
Total Yards (L5)
+11.0% more
Washington: 381.8
vs
Chicago: 343.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHI Score
30.8
15
WSH Score
24.8
18
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
22.3 / 21.8
23.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards
220.6 / 218.4
313.0 / 105.0
Rushing Yards
161.2 / 125.5
168.0 / 202.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.4
0.33 / 0.17
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards
381.8 / 343.9
481.0 / 307.0
Turnovers
0.5 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play
6.2 / 5.3
6.7 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 11.8
ATS +/-: +9.9
WSH
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -8.5
ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 11.8
ATS +/-: +9.9
WSH
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.5
ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -0.5
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CHI
WSH
CHI
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
ATS
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
100%
4-0
TTL
50%
2-2
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
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