HOUSTON
TEXANSHOU
6-2 | Road
13
NEW YORK
JETSNYJ
2-6 | Home
21
Key Game
KEY GAME
Ka'imi Fairbairn
#15 | Place kicker@
KEY GAME
Braiden McGregor
#55 | Defensive End| Player | |
|---|---|
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | None-None |
| Braiden McGregor | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
100%
JETS
0%
TEXANS
--
JETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.6 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NYJ -11.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYJ)
HOU By 1-6 points
9.5%
HOU By 7-13 points
6.1%
NYJ By 1-6 points
14.4%
NYJ By 7-13 points
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
15.75
HOUSTON
New York
27.4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Houston
17
HOUSTON
New York
24
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jets
Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.6
D
Sim
Jets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 43.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 41.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 31, 2024
HOU @ NYJ
13 - 21
Dec 10, 2023
HOU @ NYJ
6 - 30
Nov 28, 2021
NYJ @ HOU
21 - 14
Dec 15, 2018
HOU @ NYJ
29 - 22
Nov 22, 2015
NYJ @ HOU
17 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+20.0% more
New York: 1.1
vs
Houston: 0.9
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+10.6% more
New York: 235.0
vs
Houston: 212.6
Rushing Yards (L5)
+24.1% more
Houston: 118.6
vs
New York: 90.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
15.8
13
NYJ Score
27.4
21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.4 / 19.0
17.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards
235.0 / 212.6
193.0 / 135.0
Rushing Yards
90.1 / 118.6
100.0 / 187.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.42 / 0.35
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards
325.0 / 331.2
293.0 / 322.0
Turnovers
1.1 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play
5.5 / 5.1
5.3 / 4.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: -6.3
ATS +/-: -7.6
NYJ
Advantage
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0
(0.0%)
Margin: -6.3
ATS +/-: -7.6
NYJ
Advantage
2-1-1
(66.7%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.0
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
HOU
NYJ
HOU
ML
75%
3-1
0%
0-4
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
ATS
33%
1-2-1
0%
0-4
33%
1-2-1
50%
2-2
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
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