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DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

3-4  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sun, Nov 3 • 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

5-3  |  Home

27
Key Game
Brandon Aubrey
KEY GAME

Brandon Aubrey

#17 | Place kicker
@
Charlie Woerner
KEY GAME

Charlie Woerner

#89 | Tight End
Player
Brandon Aubrey None-None
Charlie Woerner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
COWBOYS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.3
DALLAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.3 points (Dallas)
CowboysDAL (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

86.3%

Falcons Cover

13.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DAL -15.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DAL)

DAL By 1-6 points

11.9%

DAL By 7-13 points

18.4%

ATL By 1-6 points

7.0%

ATL By 7-13 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
28.6
DALLAS
13.27
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
20
DALLAS
28
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cowboys Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cowboys (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -15.3
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 22, 2025 ATL @ DAL 13 - 31
Nov 3, 2024 DAL @ ATL 21 - 27
Nov 14, 2021 ATL @ DAL 3 - 43
Sep 20, 2020 ATL @ DAL 39 - 40
Nov 18, 2018 DAL @ ATL 22 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +52.4% more
Dallas: 2.5 vs Atlanta: 1.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +90.5% more
Atlanta: 134.0 vs Dallas: 70.3
Total Yards (L5) +21.9% more
Atlanta: 393.9 vs Dallas: 323.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +21.3% more
Atlanta: 6.1 vs Dallas: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 28.6 21
ATL Score 13.3 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 19.3 17.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 259.9 / 252.9 210.0 / 241.0
Rushing Yards 134.0 / 70.3 100.0 / 137.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 393.9 / 323.2 310.0 / 378.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 2.5 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 6.1 / 5.0 5.5 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
DAL
ATL
DAL
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
67% 2-1-1
0% 0-4
100% 3-0-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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