Home / NFL Projections NFL / Buccaneers @ Chiefs TB @ KC

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

4-4  |  Road

24
FINAL
Mon, Nov 4 • 8:15 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

7-0  |  Home

30
Key Game
Chase McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Chase McLaughlin

#4 | Place kicker
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Chase McLaughlin None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
CHIEFS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Kansas City)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

41.2%

Chiefs Cover

58.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

TB By 1-6 points

15.2%

TB By 7-13 points

12.8%

KC By 1-6 points

17.0%

KC By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
23.75
TAMPA BAY
26.86
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
27
TAMPA BAY
20
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chiefs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buccaneers Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim Buccaneers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 50.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2024 TB @ KC 24 - 30
Oct 2, 2022 KC @ TB 41 - 31
Feb 7, 2021 KC @ TB 9 - 31
Nov 29, 2020 KC @ TB 27 - 24
Nov 20, 2016 TB @ KC 19 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +34.0% more
Tampa Bay: 2.2 vs Kansas City: 1.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +23.7% more
Tampa Bay: 301.2 vs Kansas City: 230.0
Total Yards (L5) +19.7% more
Tampa Bay: 439.2 vs Kansas City: 352.9
Yards Per Play (L5) +17.6% more
Tampa Bay: 6.3 vs Kansas City: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 23.8 24
KC Score 26.9 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.5 / 25.2 28.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 230.0 / 301.2 260.0 / 189.0
Rushing Yards 122.9 / 138.0 124.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.6 0.67 / 0.45
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 352.9 / 439.2 384.0 / 284.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 2.2 1.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.2 / 6.3 4.6 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
KC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.0
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
TB
KC
TB
ML
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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