Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Chiefs DEN @ KC

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

5-4  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sun, Nov 10 • 1:00 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

8-0  |  Home

16
Key Game
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Wil Lutz None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
0%
📊
CHIEFS
100%
BRONCOS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Denver)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

50.7%

Chiefs Cover

49.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-6 points

16.5%

DEN By 7-13 points

15.6%

KC By 1-6 points

16.4%

KC By 7-13 points

15.2%

AI Model Projected Score
23.91
DENVER
23.68
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
17
DENVER
27
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chiefs Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.2
D
Sim Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 14, 2026 DEN @ KC 10 - 31
Dec 25, 2025 DEN @ KC 20 - 13
Nov 16, 2025 KC @ DEN 19 - 22
Jan 5, 2025 KC @ DEN 0 - 38
Nov 10, 2024 DEN @ KC 14 - 16
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +22.5% more
Kansas City: 24.3 vs Denver: 19.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Kansas City: 0.6 vs Denver: 0.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Kansas City: 240.0 vs Denver: 209.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 23.9 14
KC Score 23.7 16
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.3 / 19.8 19.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 240.0 / 209.1 243.0 / 182.0
Rushing Yards 123.3 / 128.9 57.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.54
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 363.3 / 338.0 300.0 / 260.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 5.2 4.6 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
DEN
KC
DEN
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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