Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Commanders PIT @ WSH

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

6-2  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sun, Nov 10 • 1:00 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

7-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Chris Boswell None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
100%
📊
COMMANDERS
0%
STEELERS --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.5
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.5 points (Washington)
SteelersPIT (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

34.7%

Commanders Cover

65.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WSH -5.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

PIT By 1-6 points

13.8%

PIT By 7-13 points

10.8%

WSH By 1-6 points

16.8%

WSH By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
27.41
PITTSBURGH
32.91
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
20
PITTSBURGH
24
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Commanders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.5
D
Sim Commanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 60.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 10, 2024 PIT @ WSH 28 - 27
Dec 7, 2020 WSH @ PIT 23 - 17
Sep 12, 2016 PIT @ WSH 38 - 16
Oct 28, 2012 WSH @ PIT 12 - 27
Nov 3, 2008 PIT @ WSH 23 - 6
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +12.2% more
Washington: 22.0 vs Pittsburgh: 19.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +9.8% more
Washington: 237.3 vs Pittsburgh: 216.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +8.1% more
Washington: 6.2 vs Pittsburgh: 5.8
Total Yards (L5) +8.1% more
Washington: 395.9 vs Pittsburgh: 366.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 27.4 28
WSH Score 32.9 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 19.6 19.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 237.3 / 216.1 182.0 / 172.0
Rushing Yards 158.6 / 150.0 60.0 / 140.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 395.9 / 366.1 242.0 / 312.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 0.7 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 6.2 / 5.8 4.1 / 4.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PIT
WSH
PIT
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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