Home / NFL Projections NFL / Lions @ Texans DET @ HOU

DETROIT

LIONSDET

7-1  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Nov 10 • 8:20 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

6-3  |  Home

23
Key Game
Devin White
KEY GAME

Devin White

#45 | Linebacker
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Devin White None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
0%
📊
TEXANS
100%
LIONS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
61.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Detroit)
LionsDET (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

61.4%

Texans Cover

38.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DET -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-6 points

17.0%

DET By 7-13 points

18.1%

HOU By 1-6 points

14.7%

HOU By 7-13 points

12.0%

AI Model Projected Score
32.69
DETROIT
28.63
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
20
DETROIT
27
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Lions (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.1
D
Sim Texans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 61.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2025 HOU @ DET 26 - 7
Nov 10, 2024 DET @ HOU 26 - 23
Nov 26, 2020 HOU @ DET 41 - 25
Oct 30, 2016 DET @ HOU 13 - 20
Nov 22, 2012 HOU @ DET 34 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.8% more
Detroit: 5.7 vs Houston: 4.8
Turnovers (L5) +62.0% more
Houston: 0.9 vs Detroit: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 32.7 26
HOU Score 28.6 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 19.5 16.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 186.7 / 176.2 192.0 / 240.0
Rushing Yards 141.4 / 145.6 56.0 / 105.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 328.1 / 321.8 248.0 / 345.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.3 2.0 / 5.0
Yards Per Play 4.8 / 5.7 3.8 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DET
HOU
DET
ML
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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