Home / NFL Projections NFL / Dolphins @ Rams MIA @ LAR

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

2-6  |  Road

23
FINAL
Mon, Nov 11 • 8:15 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

4-4  |  Home

15
Key Game
Chop Robinson
KEY GAME

Chop Robinson

#44 | Linebacker
@
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
Player
Chop Robinson None-None
Ethan Evans None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DOLPHINS
100%
📊
RAMS
0%
DOLPHINS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
32.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.7 points (Los Angeles)
DolphinsMIA (-3.5) 0 RamsLAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dolphins Cover

36.8%

Rams Cover

63.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LAR -4.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAR)

MIA By 1-6 points

14.3%

MIA By 7-13 points

11.5%

LAR By 1-6 points

16.9%

LAR By 7-13 points

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
13.92
MIAMI
18.65
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
24
MIAMI
27
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rams Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rams (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.7
D
Sim Rams (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 32.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2024 MIA @ LAR 23 - 15
Nov 1, 2020 LAR @ MIA 17 - 28
Nov 20, 2016 MIA @ LAR 14 - 10
Oct 14, 2012 LAR @ MIA 14 - 17
Nov 30, 2008 MIA @ LAR 16 - 12
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +27.3% more
Los Angeles: 250.3 vs Miami: 196.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.7% more
Miami: 149.5 vs Los Angeles: 96.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Miami: 0.5 vs Los Angeles: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 13.9 23
LAR Score 18.7 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 21.6 20.0 / 15.0
Net Passing Yards 250.3 / 196.7 257.0 / 171.0
Rushing Yards 96.2 / 149.5 70.0 / 67.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.25 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 346.5 / 346.1 327.0 / 238.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.0 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.4 / 5.5 4.8 / 4.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
LAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
LAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAR
MIA
LAR
MIA
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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