Home / NFL Projections NFL / Browns @ Saints CLE @ NO

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

2-7  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sun, Nov 17 • 1:00 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

3-7  |  Home

35
Key Game
Isaiah McGuire
KEY GAME

Isaiah McGuire

#57 | Defensive End
@
John Ridgeway III
KEY GAME

John Ridgeway III

#95 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Isaiah McGuire None-None
John Ridgeway III None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BROWNS
100%
📊
SAINTS
0%
BROWNS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.2
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.2 points (New Orleans)
BrownsCLE (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Browns Cover

32.9%

Saints Cover

67.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NO -6.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

CLE By 1-6 points

13.4%

CLE By 7-13 points

10.2%

NO By 1-6 points

16.7%

NO By 7-13 points

19.0%

AI Model Projected Score
16.17
CLEVELAND
22.38
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
20
CLEVELAND
24
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.2
D
Sim Saints (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2024 CLE @ NO 14 - 35
Dec 24, 2022 NO @ CLE 17 - 10
Sep 16, 2018 CLE @ NO 18 - 21
Sep 14, 2014 NO @ CLE 24 - 26
Oct 24, 2010 CLE @ NO 30 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.6% more
New Orleans: 121.6 vs Cleveland: 84.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +28.3% more
New Orleans: 5.8 vs Cleveland: 4.5
Total Yards (L5) +15.6% more
New Orleans: 357.0 vs Cleveland: 308.7
Turnovers (L5) +68.9% more
Cleveland: 1.8 vs New Orleans: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 16.2 14
NO Score 22.4 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.6 / 18.9 19.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 235.5 / 224.7 259.0 / 377.0
Rushing Yards 121.6 / 84.1 214.0 / 66.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 357.0 / 308.7 473.0 / 443.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.8 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.8 / 4.5 8.2 / 6.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
CLE
NO
CLE
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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