JACKSONVILLE
JAGUARSJAX
2-8 | Road
6
DETROIT
LIONSDET
8-1 | Home
52
Key Game
KEY GAME
Logan Cooke
#9 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Jake Bates
#39 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Logan Cooke | None-None |
| Jake Bates | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
LIONS
0%
JAGUARS
--
LIONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
50.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.7
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.7 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -7.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
JAX By 1-6 points
12.4%
JAX By 7-13 points
9.0%
DET By 1-6 points
16.2%
DET By 7-13 points
19.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Jacksonville
21.43
JACKSONVILLE
Detroit
29.15
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Jacksonville
24
JACKSONVILLE
Detroit
28
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lions
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lions
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lions (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.7
D
Sim
Lions (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 50.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 17, 2024
JAX @ DET
6 - 52
Dec 4, 2022
JAX @ DET
14 - 40
Oct 18, 2020
DET @ JAX
34 - 16
Nov 20, 2016
JAX @ DET
19 - 26
Nov 4, 2012
DET @ JAX
31 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+58.9% more
Detroit: 132.0
vs
Jacksonville: 83.1
Total Yards (L5)
+29.0% more
Detroit: 329.5
vs
Jacksonville: 255.5
First Downs (L5)
+27.8% more
Detroit: 19.3
vs
Jacksonville: 15.1
Yards Per Play (L5)
+17.5% more
Detroit: 5.7
vs
Jacksonville: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
JAX Score
21.4
6
DET Score
29.2
52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.3 / 15.1
38.0 / 10.0
Net Passing Yards
197.5 / 172.4
449.0 / 129.0
Rushing Yards
132.0 / 83.1
196.0 / 41.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.4
0.6 / 0.2
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.4
0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards
329.5 / 255.5
645.0 / 170.0
Turnovers
1.9 / 2.3
0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play
5.7 / 4.8
8.5 / 3.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +11.1
DET
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +11.1
DET
0-3-1
(0.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -7.1
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0%
Total +/-: +10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
JAX
DET
JAX
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
ATS
33%
1-2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1-1
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
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