Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Dolphins LV @ MIA

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-7  |  Road

19
FINAL
Sun, Nov 17 • 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

3-6  |  Home

34
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
Chop Robinson
KEY GAME

Chop Robinson

#44 | Linebacker
Player
AJ Cole None-None
Chop Robinson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
📊
DOLPHINS
0%
RAIDERS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
32.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Miami)
RaidersLV (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

44.1%

Dolphins Cover

55.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

LV By 1-6 points

15.7%

LV By 7-13 points

13.7%

MIA By 1-6 points

16.9%

MIA By 7-13 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
15.39
LAS VEGAS
17.48
MIAMI
Simulated Score
17
LAS VEGAS
27
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dolphins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.1
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 32.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 MIA @ LV 13 - 27
Nov 17, 2024 LV @ MIA 19 - 34
Nov 19, 2023 LV @ MIA 13 - 20
Sep 26, 2021 MIA @ LV 28 - 31
Dec 26, 2020 MIA @ LV 26 - 25
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +71.1% more
Miami: 122.0 vs Las Vegas: 71.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +21.8% more
Miami: 5.1 vs Las Vegas: 4.2
Total Yards (L5) +20.4% more
Miami: 310.1 vs Las Vegas: 257.6
First Downs (L5) +14.9% more
Miami: 19.4 vs Las Vegas: 16.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 15.4 19
MIA Score 17.5 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.4 / 16.9 25.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 188.1 / 186.3 271.0 / 268.0
Rushing Yards 122.0 / 71.3 82.0 / 60.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 310.1 / 257.6 353.0 / 328.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 2.1 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 4.2 5.5 / 5.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LV
MIA
LV
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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