INDIANAPOLIS
COLTSIND
4-6 | Road
28
NEW YORK
JETSNYJ
3-7 | Home
27
Key Game
KEY GAME
Sauce Gardner
#1 | Cornerback@
KEY GAME
Thomas Hennessy
#42 | Long Snapper| Player | |
|---|---|
| Sauce Gardner | None-None |
| Thomas Hennessy | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
0%
JETS
100%
COLTS
--
JETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
INDIANAPOLIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Indianapolis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around IND -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IND)
IND By 1-6 points
16.7%
IND By 7-13 points
16.1%
NYJ By 1-6 points
16.1%
NYJ By 7-13 points
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Indianapolis
20.3
INDIANAPOLIS
New York
19.32
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Indianapolis
20
INDIANAPOLIS
New York
24
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Colts
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jets
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Colts (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Jets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 39.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 17, 2024
IND @ NYJ
28 - 27
Nov 4, 2021
NYJ @ IND
30 - 45
Sep 27, 2020
NYJ @ IND
7 - 36
Oct 14, 2018
IND @ NYJ
34 - 42
Dec 5, 2016
IND @ NYJ
41 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+56.7% more
Indianapolis: 2.4
vs
New York: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5)
+24.1% more
Indianapolis: 116.7
vs
New York: 88.6
Total Yards (L5)
+10.2% more
Indianapolis: 310.3
vs
New York: 278.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+9.0% more
New York: 0.4
vs
Indianapolis: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
20.3
28
NYJ Score
19.3
27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
18.1 / 17.4
10.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards
190.0 / 193.7
162.0 / 241.0
Rushing Yards
88.6 / 116.7
91.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.3
0.31 / 0.4
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.4
0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards
278.6 / 310.3
253.0 / 332.0
Turnovers
1.0 / 2.4
0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play
4.9 / 5.2
4.9 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
Advantage
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +1.0
NYJ
1-3-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +1.0
NYJ
2-1-1
(66.7%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYJ
IND
NYJ
IND
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
ATS
33%
1-2-1
25%
1-3
33%
1-2-1
25%
1-3
TTL
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
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