Home / NFL Projections NFL / Falcons @ Broncos ATL @ DEN

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

6-4  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Nov 17 • 4:05 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

5-5  |  Home

38
Key Game
DeAngelo Malone
KEY GAME

DeAngelo Malone

#50 | Linebacker
@
Wil Lutz
KEY GAME

Wil Lutz

#3 | Place kicker
Player
DeAngelo Malone None-None
Wil Lutz None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
BRONCOS
0%
FALCONS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Denver)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

38.8%

Broncos Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEN -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

ATL By 1-6 points

14.7%

ATL By 7-13 points

12.1%

DEN By 1-6 points

17.0%

DEN By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24.09
ATLANTA
28.06
DENVER
Simulated Score
20
ATLANTA
27
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Broncos Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 17, 2024 ATL @ DEN 6 - 38
Nov 8, 2020 DEN @ ATL 27 - 34
Oct 9, 2016 ATL @ DEN 23 - 16
Sep 17, 2012 DEN @ ATL 21 - 27
Nov 16, 2008 DEN @ ATL 24 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +22.4% more
Atlanta: 257.9 vs Denver: 200.0
Total Yards (L5) +22.0% more
Atlanta: 400.0 vs Denver: 312.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.2% more
Atlanta: 142.1 vs Denver: 111.9
Turnovers (L5) +19.4% more
Atlanta: 1.1 vs Denver: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 24.1 6
DEN Score 28.1 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.6 / 21.6 22.0 / 13.0
Net Passing Yards 200.0 / 257.9 295.0 / 176.0
Rushing Yards 111.9 / 142.1 105.0 / 50.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 312.0 / 400.0 400.0 / 226.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 6.1 6.7 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
ATL
DEN
ATL
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
ATS
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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