Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Bills KC @ BUF

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

9-0  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sun, Nov 17 • 4:25 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

8-2  |  Home

30
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Tyler Bass
KEY GAME

Tyler Bass

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Tyler Bass None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
100%
📊
BILLS
0%
CHIEFS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
56.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Buffalo)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

46.0%

Bills Cover

54.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

KC By 1-6 points

16.0%

KC By 7-13 points

14.3%

BUF By 1-6 points

16.8%

BUF By 7-13 points

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
27.5
KANSAS CITY
28.9
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
24
KANSAS CITY
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bills Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bills Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.4
D
Sim Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 56.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 2, 2025 KC @ BUF 21 - 28
Jan 26, 2025 BUF @ KC 29 - 32
Nov 17, 2024 KC @ BUF 21 - 30
Jan 21, 2024 KC @ BUF 27 - 24
Dec 10, 2023 BUF @ KC 20 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.0% more
Buffalo: 1.1 vs Kansas City: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +22.5% more
Buffalo: 124.0 vs Kansas City: 101.2
Yards Per Play (L5) +21.6% more
Buffalo: 5.9 vs Kansas City: 4.9
Total Yards (L5) +10.4% more
Buffalo: 377.9 vs Kansas City: 342.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 27.5 21
BUF Score 28.9 30
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 22.5 24.0 / 19.0
Net Passing Yards 253.9 / 241.0 262.0 / 181.0
Rushing Yards 124.0 / 101.2 104.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.6 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 377.9 / 342.2 366.0 / 259.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.9 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.9 / 4.9 5.2 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
KC
BUF
KC
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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