Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Cowboys HOU @ DAL

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

6-4  |  Road

34
FINAL
Mon, Nov 18 • 8:15 PM ET
AT&T Stadium
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

COWBOYSDAL

3-6  |  Home

10
Key Game
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
@
Brandon Aubrey
KEY GAME

Brandon Aubrey

#17 | Place kicker
Player
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
Brandon Aubrey None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
COWBOYS
100%
TEXANS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 CowboysDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

58.5%

Cowboys Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

17.0%

HOU By 7-13 points

17.5%

DAL By 1-6 points

15.2%

DAL By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
21.18
HOUSTON
18.16
DALLAS
Simulated Score
27
HOUSTON
20
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Texans (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2026 DAL @ HOU 34 - 30
Nov 18, 2024 HOU @ DAL 34 - 10
Dec 11, 2022 HOU @ DAL 23 - 27
Oct 7, 2018 DAL @ HOU 16 - 19
Oct 5, 2014 HOU @ DAL 17 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.8% more
Houston: 113.0 vs Dallas: 94.0
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Houston: 0.6 vs Dallas: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +8.3% more
Houston: 301.4 vs Dallas: 276.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Houston: 0.4 vs Dallas: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 21.2 34
DAL Score 18.2 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 18.5 24.0 / 21.0
Net Passing Yards 182.3 / 188.5 324.0 / 250.0
Rushing Yards 94.0 / 113.0 64.0 / 141.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 276.3 / 301.4 388.0 / 391.0
Turnovers 2.8 / 1.3 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 4.2 / 4.5 4.9 / 6.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
DAL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
DAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
DAL
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +8.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
HOU
DAL
HOU
ML
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
67% 2-1-1
0% 0-4
100% 3-0-1
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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