Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Nuggets OKC @ DEN

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

0-0  |  Road

102
FINAL
Thu, Oct 24 • 10:00 PM ET
Ball Arena
View Odds Details →

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

0-0  |  Home

87
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
NUGGETS
100%
THUNDER --
NUGGETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
192.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.7
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.7 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 NuggetsDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

83.4%

Nuggets Cover

16.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -9.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

23.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

27.1%

DEN By 1-7 points

11.1%

DEN By 8-14 points

3.5%

AI Model Projected Score
101.09
OKLAHOMA CITY
91.38
DENVER
Simulated Score
108
OKLAHOMA CITY
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Nuggets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.7
D
Sim Nuggets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 192.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 OKC @ DEN 107 - 127
Mar 9, 2026 DEN @ OKC 126 - 129
Feb 27, 2026 DEN @ OKC 121 - 127
Feb 1, 2026 OKC @ DEN 121 - 111
May 18, 2025 DEN @ OKC 93 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +38.3% more
Oklahoma City: 11.2 vs Denver: 6.9
Blocks (L5) +33.7% more
Oklahoma City: 6.7 vs Denver: 4.4
Turnovers (L5) +38.5% more
Denver: 18.7 vs Oklahoma City: 13.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
Denver: 38.5% vs Oklahoma City: 34.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 101.1 102
DEN Score 91.4 87
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 34.7 18.4 / 22.2
Assists 28.0 / 27.4 29.0 / 23.0
Blocks 4.4 / 6.7 7.0 / 13.0
Field Goal % 47.2 / 45.9 35.7 / 42.6
Free Throw % 70.4 / 68.9 71.4 / 66.7
Rebounding 44.4 / 45.6 57.0 / 49.0
Steals 6.9 / 11.2 11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 18.7 / 13.5 16.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DEN
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DEN Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
OKC
DEN
OKC
ML
54% 57-48
70% 80-34
55% 47-39
48% 46-49
ATS
63% 65-38-2
73% 83-30-1
55% 47-39
48% 46-49
TTL
54% 56-48-1
67% 76-38
100% 86-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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