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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

12-4  |  Road

130
FINAL
Mon, Nov 25 • 10:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

8-9  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
KINGS
100%
THUNDER --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.3
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.3 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

70.3%

Kings Cover

29.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -5.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

27.1%

OKC By 8-14 points

23.5%

SAC By 1-7 points

18.0%

SAC By 8-14 points

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
116.4
OKLAHOMA CITY
111.06
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
121
OKLAHOMA CITY
116
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.3
D
Sim Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 227.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 SAC @ OKC 99 - 113
Nov 7, 2025 OKC @ SAC 132 - 101
Oct 28, 2025 SAC @ OKC 101 - 107
Mar 25, 2025 OKC @ SAC 121 - 105
Feb 1, 2025 SAC @ OKC 110 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +50.1% more
Oklahoma City: 13.0 vs Sacramento: 6.5
Free Throw % (L5) +13.4%
Oklahoma City: 85.3% vs Sacramento: 71.9%
Blocks (L5) +12.2% more
Oklahoma City: 6.6 vs Sacramento: 5.8
Assists (L5) +10.4% more
Oklahoma City: 24.6 vs Sacramento: 22.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 116.4 130
SAC Score 111.1 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 31.3 25.0 / 45.2
Assists 22.1 / 24.6 24.0 / 28.0
Blocks 5.8 / 6.6 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 44.3 48.3 / 55.8
Free Throw % 71.9 / 85.3 73.9 / 80.0
Rebounding 44.6 / 42.4 31.0 / 44.0
Steals 6.5 / 13.0 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 15.3 / 12.1 12.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
OKC
SAC
OKC
ML
55% 55-45
70% 80-34
61% 50-32
48% 46-49
ATS
54% 52-45-3
73% 83-30-1
61% 50-32
48% 46-49
TTL
58% 57-42-1
67% 76-38
100% 82-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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