Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Lakers OKC @ LAL

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

14-4  |  Road

101
FINAL
Fri, Nov 29 • 10:00 PM ET
Crypto.com Arena
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

LAKERSLAL

11-7  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
LAKERS
0%
THUNDER --
LAKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Los Angeles)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 LakersLAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

32.7%

Lakers Cover

67.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LAL -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAL)

OKC By 1-7 points

19.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

8.6%

LAL By 1-7 points

27.3%

LAL By 8-14 points

22.3%

AI Model Projected Score
111.6
OKLAHOMA CITY
116.09
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
120
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lakers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lakers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim Lakers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 227.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 11, 2026 OKC @ LAL 115 - 110
May 9, 2026 OKC @ LAL 131 - 108
May 7, 2026 LAL @ OKC 107 - 125
May 5, 2026 LAL @ OKC 90 - 108
Apr 7, 2026 OKC @ LAL 123 - 87
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +6.2%
Los Angeles: 82.4% vs Oklahoma City: 76.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Los Angeles: 35.4% vs Oklahoma City: 33.8%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.5%
Los Angeles: 48.9% vs Oklahoma City: 47.4%
Blocks (L5) +36.2% more
Oklahoma City: 6.6 vs Los Angeles: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 111.6 101
LAL Score 116.1 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.4 / 33.8 28.9 / 32.5
Assists 27.5 / 25.8 25.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.2 / 6.6 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.9 / 47.4 45.2 / 40.9
Free Throw % 82.4 / 76.2 76.2 / 75.0
Rebounding 40.6 / 44.6 47.0 / 47.0
Steals 8.0 / 10.5 4.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 12.7 / 13.4 17.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
LAL
57-35-0 (62.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
LAL Advantage
51-41-0 (55.4%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
OKC
LAL
OKC
ML
61% 68-43
70% 80-34
54% 49-42
48% 46-49
ATS
61% 67-43-1
73% 83-30-1
54% 49-42
48% 46-49
TTL
61% 66-43-2
67% 76-38
100% 91-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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