Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Rockets OKC @ HOU

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

15-4  |  Road

116
FINAL
Sun, Dec 1 • 7:00 PM ET
Toyota Center
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

14-6  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
ROCKETS
100%
THUNDER --
ROCKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 RocketsHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

53.9%

Rockets Cover

46.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

26.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

16.9%

HOU By 1-7 points

24.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
116.46
OKLAHOMA CITY
115.48
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
109
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Rockets (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 HOU @ OKC 112 - 106
Jan 15, 2026 OKC @ HOU 111 - 91
Oct 21, 2025 HOU @ OKC 124 - 125
Apr 4, 2025 OKC @ HOU 111 - 125
Mar 3, 2025 HOU @ OKC 128 - 137
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +65.1% more
Houston: 8.9 vs Oklahoma City: 5.4
Turnovers (L5) +26.3% more
Houston: 15.5 vs Oklahoma City: 12.2
Free Throw % (L5) +6.2%
Houston: 82.0% vs Oklahoma City: 75.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 116.5 116
HOU Score 115.5 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.6 / 33.4 35.1 / 33.3
Assists 24.7 / 23.9 20.0 / 30.0
Blocks 8.9 / 5.4 6.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 45.2 41.3 / 44.7
Free Throw % 82.0 / 75.8 76.9 / 76.0
Rebounding 48.6 / 45.4 51.0 / 46.0
Steals 10.8 / 11.0 3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 15.5 / 12.2 10.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
HOU
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
OKC
HOU
OKC
ML
61% 69-44
70% 80-34
59% 51-35
48% 46-49
ATS
62% 70-43
73% 83-30-1
59% 51-35
48% 46-49
TTL
51% 58-55
67% 76-38
100% 86-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cooper Flagg and Mavericks Face Media at NBA China Games in Macao
dallasnews 1 hour, 18 minutes ago
Matt Barnes: Clippers Are Cursed, Urges Steve Ballmer to Rebrand
tmz 1 hour, 26 minutes ago
Kyrie Irving Set for Mavericks Return in China After 19-Month AC…
yahoo 7 hours, 10 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Declares Himself NBA's Best Player, Shru…
bleacherreport 7 hours, 22 minutes ago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Takes Blame for Thunder's Game 7 Loss, B…
bleacherreport 7 hours, 29 minutes ago