Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Raptors OKC @ TOR

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

16-5  |  Road

129
FINAL
Thu, Dec 5 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

7-15  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
RAPTORS
0%
THUNDER --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
223.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Toronto)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

42.7%

Raptors Cover

57.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

OKC By 1-7 points

23.2%

OKC By 8-14 points

12.4%

TOR By 1-7 points

26.8%

TOR By 8-14 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
111.05
OKLAHOMA CITY
112.89
TORONTO
Simulated Score
103
OKLAHOMA CITY
123
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raptors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raptors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.8
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 223.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 226.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 24, 2026 OKC @ TOR 116 - 107
Jan 25, 2026 TOR @ OKC 103 - 101
Feb 7, 2025 TOR @ OKC 109 - 121
Dec 5, 2024 OKC @ TOR 129 - 92
Mar 22, 2024 OKC @ TOR 123 - 103
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +84.3% more
Toronto: 17.8 vs Oklahoma City: 9.7
Rebounding (L5) +10.5% more
Toronto: 46.1 vs Oklahoma City: 41.7
Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Toronto: 51.5% vs Oklahoma City: 47.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Toronto: 36.8% vs Oklahoma City: 34.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 111.1 129
TOR Score 112.9 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 34.3 24.4 / 36.2
Assists 29.7 / 28.0 24.0 / 28.0
Blocks 4.2 / 4.3 7.0 / 11.0
Field Goal % 51.5 / 47.4 35.6 / 48.0
Free Throw % 70.8 / 80.9 85.0 / 82.4
Rebounding 46.1 / 41.7 51.0 / 55.0
Steals 7.1 / 12.0 5.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 17.8 / 9.7 20.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
OKC
TOR
OKC
ML
55% 57-47
70% 80-34
55% 48-39
48% 46-49
ATS
61% 62-40-2
73% 83-30-1
55% 48-39
48% 46-49
TTL
60% 62-42
67% 76-38
100% 87-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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