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DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

16-8  |  Road

104
FINAL
Tue, Dec 10 • 9:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

18-5  |  Home

118
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
MAVERICKS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
238.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Oklahoma City)
MavericksDAL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

44.7%

Thunder Cover

55.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

DAL By 1-7 points

23.9%

DAL By 8-14 points

13.2%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
118.37
DALLAS
119.7
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
DALLAS
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.3
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 238.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 OKC @ DAL 100 - 87
Dec 5, 2025 DAL @ OKC 111 - 132
Oct 27, 2025 OKC @ DAL 101 - 94
Oct 6, 2025 OKC @ DAL 89 - 106
Jan 23, 2025 DAL @ OKC 121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +39.8% more
Oklahoma City: 13.0 vs Dallas: 9.3
Assists (L5) +9.8% more
Oklahoma City: 27.6 vs Dallas: 25.2
Free Throw % (L5) +2.7%
Oklahoma City: 81.3% vs Dallas: 78.5%
Blocks (L5) +30.7% more
Dallas: 7.7 vs Oklahoma City: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DAL Score 118.4 104
OKC Score 119.7 118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.8 / 43.3 40.0 / 41.7
Assists 27.6 / 25.2 29.0 / 25.0
Blocks 5.4 / 7.7 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 49.4 / 49.9 45.5 / 47.5
Free Throw % 81.3 / 78.5 85.7 / 68.4
Rebounding 45.8 / 50.2 52.0 / 44.0
Steals 13.0 / 9.3 14.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 17.4 14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
DAL
OKC
DAL
ML
70% 80-34
62% 63-39
48% 46-49
54% 44-37
ATS
73% 83-30-1
67% 68-34
48% 46-49
54% 44-37
TTL
67% 76-38
59% 60-41-1
100% 95-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
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