Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Magic OKC @ ORL

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

20-5  |  Road

105
FINAL
Thu, Dec 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Kia Center
View Odds Details →

ORLANDO

MAGICORL

17-11  |  Home

99
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
MAGIC
100%
THUNDER --
MAGIC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
226.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.8 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 MagicORL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

64.8%

Magic Cover

35.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -3.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

27.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

21.3%

ORL By 1-7 points

20.4%

ORL By 8-14 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
115.27
OKLAHOMA CITY
111.47
ORLANDO
Simulated Score
114
OKLAHOMA CITY
109
ORLANDO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.8
D
Sim Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 226.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 OKC @ ORL 113 - 108
Feb 3, 2026 ORL @ OKC 92 - 128
Dec 19, 2024 OKC @ ORL 105 - 99
Nov 4, 2024 ORL @ OKC 86 - 102
Feb 13, 2024 OKC @ ORL 127 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +18.3% more
Oklahoma City: 11.9 vs Orlando: 9.7
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Oklahoma City: 83.5% vs Orlando: 76.6%
Blocks (L5) +47.5% more
Orlando: 7.2 vs Oklahoma City: 4.9
Turnovers (L5) +29.8% more
Orlando: 15.2 vs Oklahoma City: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 115.3 105
ORL Score 111.5 99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.5 / 29.9 31.4 / 32.3
Assists 21.3 / 21.0 25.0 / 23.0
Blocks 7.2 / 4.9 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 44.3 / 42.6 44.9 / 48.2
Free Throw % 76.6 / 83.5 72.0 / 93.8
Rebounding 41.8 / 45.2 40.0 / 32.0
Steals 9.7 / 11.9 6.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 15.2 / 11.7 20.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
ORL
49-42-0 (53.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
ORL
43-48-0 (47.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
ORL
47-44-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORL
OKC
ORL
OKC
ML
61% 65-42
70% 80-34
56% 51-40
48% 46-49
ATS
64% 68-38-1
73% 83-30-1
56% 51-40
48% 46-49
TTL
57% 61-46
67% 76-38
100% 91-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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