OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
21-5 | Road
104
MIAMI
HEATMIA
13-11 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
HEAT
0%
THUNDER
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
227.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
OKC By 1-7 points
22.5%
OKC By 8-14 points
11.6%
MIA By 1-7 points
27.0%
MIA By 8-14 points
19.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
112.51
OKLAHOMA CITY
Miami
114.9
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
105
OKLAHOMA CITY
Miami
110
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -2.4
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 227.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 215.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 17, 2026
OKC @ MIA
120 - 122
Jan 11, 2026
MIA @ OKC
112 - 124
Feb 12, 2025
MIA @ OKC
101 - 115
Dec 20, 2024
OKC @ MIA
104 - 97
Mar 8, 2024
MIA @ OKC
100 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+27.8% more
Miami: 27.7
vs
Oklahoma City: 21.7
Rebounding (L5)
+13.5% more
Miami: 46.3
vs
Oklahoma City: 40.8
Turnovers (L5)
+13.1% more
Miami: 13.7
vs
Oklahoma City: 12.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.7%
Miami: 36.4%
vs
Oklahoma City: 30.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
112.5
104
MIA Score
114.9
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.4 / 30.7
30.0 / 41.2
Assists
27.7 / 21.7
20.0 / 24.0
Blocks
3.0 / 5.3
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 44.5
43.4 / 45.3
Free Throw %
81.7 / 86.9
65.0 / 70.6
Rebounding
46.3 / 40.8
41.0 / 48.0
Steals
9.5 / 13.0
9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 12.1
19.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIA
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
OKC
MIA
OKC
ML
48%
46-50
70%
80-34
59%
48-34
48%
46-49
ATS
51%
49-47
73%
83-30-1
59%
48-34
48%
46-49
TTL
59%
57-39
67%
76-38
100%
82-0
100%
95-0
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