OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
23-5 | Road
120
INDIANA
PACERSIND
15-15 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
PACERS
100%
THUNDER
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
225.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Oklahoma City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)
OKC By 1-7 points
26.6%
OKC By 8-14 points
18.0%
IND By 1-7 points
23.5%
IND By 8-14 points
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
113.77
OKLAHOMA CITY
Indiana
112.13
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
126
OKLAHOMA CITY
Indiana
121
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Thunder
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Thunder (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.6
D
Sim
Thunder (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 225.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 247.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jan 23, 2026
IND @ OKC
117 - 114
Oct 23, 2025
OKC @ IND
141 - 135
Oct 11, 2025
OKC @ IND
101 - 116
Jun 22, 2025
IND @ OKC
91 - 103
Jun 19, 2025
OKC @ IND
91 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+36.8% more
Oklahoma City: 12.5
vs
Indiana: 7.9
Blocks (L5)
+15.5% more
Oklahoma City: 6.5
vs
Indiana: 5.5
Rebounding (L5)
+8.7% more
Oklahoma City: 48.5
vs
Indiana: 44.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.8%
Oklahoma City: 83.1%
vs
Indiana: 81.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
113.8
120
IND Score
112.1
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
37.7 / 31.6
38.9 / 35.1
Assists
30.0 / 23.3
28.0 / 20.0
Blocks
5.5 / 6.5
8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.7 / 44.6
47.2 / 46.3
Free Throw %
81.3 / 83.1
72.7 / 79.2
Rebounding
44.2 / 48.5
51.0 / 45.0
Steals
7.9 / 12.5
1.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 12.5
11.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
OKC
IND
OKC
ML
48%
47-50
70%
80-34
54%
45-38
48%
46-49
ATS
59%
57-40
73%
83-30-1
54%
45-38
48%
46-49
TTL
54%
52-45
67%
76-38
100%
83-0
100%
95-0
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