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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

24-5  |  Road

106
FINAL
Sat, Dec 28 • 6:00 PM ET
Spectrum Center
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

HORNETSCHA

7-23  |  Home

94
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
HORNETS
100%
THUNDER --
HORNETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
213.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 HornetsCHA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

65.6%

Hornets Cover

34.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

27.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

21.6%

CHA By 1-7 points

20.1%

CHA By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
108.86
OKLAHOMA CITY
104.85
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
128
OKLAHOMA CITY
105
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 213.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 5, 2026 CHA @ OKC 124 - 97
Nov 15, 2025 OKC @ CHA 109 - 96
Oct 9, 2025 CHA @ OKC 116 - 122
Oct 5, 2025 OKC @ CHA 135 - 114
Mar 21, 2025 CHA @ OKC 106 - 141
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +19.6% more
Oklahoma City: 9.7 vs Charlotte: 7.8
Blocks (L5) +19.0% more
Oklahoma City: 5.6 vs Charlotte: 4.6
Free Throw % (L5) +7.3%
Oklahoma City: 81.8% vs Charlotte: 74.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.6%
Oklahoma City: 45.2% vs Charlotte: 43.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 108.9 106
CHA Score 104.9 94
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 32.7 32.4 / 26.3
Assists 27.1 / 22.2 17.0 / 29.0
Blocks 4.6 / 5.6 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 45.2 36.3 / 47.7
Free Throw % 74.5 / 81.8 89.3 / 85.7
Rebounding 46.7 / 47.3 44.0 / 49.0
Steals 7.8 / 9.7 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.7 / 9.3 18.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
CHA
45-39-0 (53.6%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
CHA Advantage
50-34-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 4.4 ATS +/-: +4.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHA
OKC
CHA
OKC
ML
61% 60-39
70% 80-34
48% 40-44
48% 46-49
ATS
60% 59-40
73% 83-30-1
48% 40-44
48% 46-49
TTL
58% 57-42
67% 76-38
100% 84-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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