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MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

22-10  |  Road

106
FINAL
Sun, Dec 29 • 7:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

25-5  |  Home

130
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
GRIZZLIES --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
250.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Oklahoma City)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

21.2%

Thunder Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

MEM By 1-7 points

13.7%

MEM By 8-14 points

4.8%

OKC By 1-7 points

25.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
121.25
MEMPHIS
129.26
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
108
MEMPHIS
121
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 250.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 229.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 9, 2026 OKC @ MEM 117 - 116
Dec 22, 2025 MEM @ OKC 103 - 119
Nov 9, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 100
Apr 26, 2025 OKC @ MEM 117 - 115
Apr 24, 2025 OKC @ MEM 114 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +4.5%
Oklahoma City: 83.1% vs Memphis: 78.6%
Blocks (L5) +34.7% more
Memphis: 6.3 vs Oklahoma City: 4.1
Turnovers (L5) +33.3% more
Memphis: 17.8 vs Oklahoma City: 11.9
Assists (L5) +22.7% more
Memphis: 31.7 vs Oklahoma City: 24.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 121.3 106
OKC Score 129.3 130
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.6 / 41.5 31.8 / 27.5
Assists 24.5 / 31.7 35.0 / 30.0
Blocks 4.1 / 6.3 9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 48.1 50.5 / 38.1
Free Throw % 83.1 / 78.6 100.0 / 85.7
Rebounding 47.9 / 50.6 45.0 / 51.0
Steals 9.5 / 10.4 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 17.8 10.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MEM
OKC
MEM
ML
70% 80-34
57% 59-44
48% 46-49
50% 41-41
ATS
73% 83-30-1
63% 65-38
48% 46-49
50% 41-41
TTL
67% 76-38
70% 71-31-1
100% 95-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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