Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Thunder BOS @ OKC

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

26-9  |  Road

92
FINAL
Sun, Jan 5 • 3:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

29-5  |  Home

105
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
CELTICS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
231.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Oklahoma City)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

41.5%

Thunder Cover

58.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

BOS By 1-7 points

22.8%

BOS By 8-14 points

11.9%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.9%

OKC By 8-14 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
114.69
BOSTON
116.84
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
110
BOSTON
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 231.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 25, 2026 OKC @ BOS 109 - 119
Mar 12, 2026 BOS @ OKC 102 - 104
Mar 12, 2025 OKC @ BOS 118 - 112
Jan 5, 2025 BOS @ OKC 92 - 105
Apr 3, 2024 OKC @ BOS 100 - 135
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +29.8% more
Oklahoma City: 10.7 vs Boston: 8.2
Free Throw % (L5) +14.4%
Oklahoma City: 82.0% vs Boston: 67.6%
Assists (L5) +8.9% more
Oklahoma City: 27.4 vs Boston: 25.2
Turnovers (L5) +8.9% more
Oklahoma City: 11.7 vs Boston: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 114.7 92
OKC Score 116.8 105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.6 / 42.5 42.1 / 19.6
Assists 27.4 / 25.2 22.0 / 17.0
Blocks 5.0 / 6.2 6.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 49.8 44.8 / 36.5
Free Throw % 82.0 / 67.6 84.6 / 87.5
Rebounding 40.8 / 41.8 46.0 / 48.0
Steals 10.7 / 8.2 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 10.7 16.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
BOS
OKC
BOS
ML
70% 80-34
57% 61-46
48% 46-49
53% 47-41
ATS
73% 83-30-1
59% 61-43-3
48% 46-49
53% 47-41
TTL
67% 76-38
56% 60-47
100% 95-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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