Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ 76ers OKC @ PHI

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

32-6  |  Road

118
FINAL
Tue, Jan 14 • 7:00 PM ET
Wells Fargo Center
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

76ERSPHI

15-22  |  Home

102
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
76ERS
100%
THUNDER --
76ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 76ersPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

66.0%

76ers Cover

34.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

27.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

21.8%

PHI By 1-7 points

19.9%

PHI By 8-14 points

9.1%

AI Model Projected Score
118.83
OKLAHOMA CITY
114.71
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
115
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim 76ers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.1
D
Sim 76ers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 233.5
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 23, 2026 OKC @ PHI 123 - 103
Dec 28, 2025 PHI @ OKC 104 - 129
Mar 19, 2025 PHI @ OKC 100 - 133
Jan 14, 2025 OKC @ PHI 118 - 102
Apr 2, 2024 OKC @ PHI 105 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +22.0% more
Oklahoma City: 47.1 vs Philadelphia: 36.8
Assists (L5) +20.3% more
Oklahoma City: 25.9 vs Philadelphia: 20.6
Blocks (L5) +14.5% more
Oklahoma City: 5.7 vs Philadelphia: 4.8
Steals (L5) +13.1% more
Oklahoma City: 10.2 vs Philadelphia: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 118.8 118
PHI Score 114.7 102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.9 / 41.1 29.5 / 33.3
Assists 20.6 / 25.9 23.0 / 32.0
Blocks 4.8 / 5.7 1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 49.8 44.0 / 55.6
Free Throw % 85.1 / 88.8 75.0 / 88.9
Rebounding 36.8 / 47.1 35.0 / 38.0
Steals 8.9 / 10.2 10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.3 / 13.5 22.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
PHI
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
PHI Advantage
50-44-0 (53.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
OKC
PHI
OKC
ML
63% 69-40
70% 80-34
48% 45-48
48% 46-49
ATS
65% 71-38
73% 83-30-1
48% 45-48
48% 46-49
TTL
55% 60-49
67% 76-38
100% 93-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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