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CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

34-5  |  Road

114
FINAL
Thu, Jan 16 • 7:30 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

33-6  |  Home

134
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
CAVALIERS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
247.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Oklahoma City)
CavaliersCLE (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cavaliers Cover

41.4%

Thunder Cover

58.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

CLE By 1-7 points

22.8%

CLE By 8-14 points

11.9%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.9%

OKC By 8-14 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
122.84
CLEVELAND
125.01
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
109
CLEVELAND
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 247.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 22, 2026 CLE @ OKC 113 - 121
Jan 19, 2026 OKC @ CLE 136 - 104
Jan 16, 2025 CLE @ OKC 114 - 134
Jan 8, 2025 OKC @ CLE 122 - 129
Nov 8, 2023 CLE @ OKC 120 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +51.2% more
Oklahoma City: 10.1 vs Cleveland: 6.7
Turnovers (L5) +13.1% more
Oklahoma City: 15.0 vs Cleveland: 13.3
Free Throw % (L5) +6.9%
Oklahoma City: 88.8% vs Cleveland: 81.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +4.0%
Oklahoma City: 51.8% vs Cleveland: 47.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 122.8 114
OKC Score 125.0 134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.5 / 35.0 34.0 / 31.0
Assists 27.9 / 28.1 25.0 / 32.0
Blocks 5.1 / 4.9 5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 51.8 / 47.7 50.5 / 46.7
Free Throw % 88.8 / 81.9 90.9 / 81.0
Rebounding 44.1 / 45.1 39.0 / 49.0
Steals 10.1 / 6.7 12.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 13.3 7.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
CLE
OKC
CLE
ML
70% 80-34
60% 69-46
48% 46-49
56% 55-44
ATS
73% 83-30-1
67% 75-37-3
48% 46-49
56% 55-44
TTL
67% 76-38
59% 68-47
100% 95-0
100% 99-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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