Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Mavericks OKC @ DAL

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

34-6  |  Road

98
FINAL
Fri, Jan 17 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

22-19  |  Home

106
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
THUNDER --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.9
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.9 points (Oklahoma City)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

68.7%

Mavericks Cover

31.3%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around OKC -4.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

OKC By 1-7 points

27.3%

OKC By 8-14 points

22.9%

DAL By 1-7 points

18.7%

DAL By 8-14 points

8.2%

AI Model Projected Score
117.65
OKLAHOMA CITY
112.77
DALLAS
Simulated Score
113
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Thunder (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.9
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 230.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 231.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 1, 2026 OKC @ DAL 100 - 87
Dec 5, 2025 DAL @ OKC 111 - 132
Oct 27, 2025 OKC @ DAL 101 - 94
Oct 6, 2025 OKC @ DAL 89 - 106
Jan 23, 2025 DAL @ OKC 121 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +16.7%
Oklahoma City: 89.5% vs Dallas: 72.8%
Steals (L5) +13.9% more
Oklahoma City: 10.8 vs Dallas: 9.3
Field Goal % (L5) +6.1%
Oklahoma City: 51.3% vs Dallas: 45.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Oklahoma City: 37.0% vs Dallas: 34.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 117.7 98
DAL Score 112.8 106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.0 / 37.0 39.0 / 43.5
Assists 26.6 / 27.0 25.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.8 / 5.1 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 45.2 / 51.3 49.3 / 38.5
Free Throw % 72.8 / 89.5 72.7 / 66.7
Rebounding 41.3 / 42.4 43.0 / 46.0
Steals 9.3 / 10.8 11.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 12.3 17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
OKC
DAL
OKC
ML
62% 63-39
70% 80-34
54% 44-37
48% 46-49
ATS
67% 68-34
73% 83-30-1
54% 44-37
48% 46-49
TTL
59% 60-41-1
67% 76-38
100% 81-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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