DALLAS
STARSDAL
16-9-0 | Road
2
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
17-7-0 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Oettinger
#29 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Adin Hill
#33 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger | None-None | 3.16 | 0.893 | -- |
| Adin Hill | None-None | 2.00 | 0.950 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
3.16
GAA
Ldr 2.00
0.893
Save %
Ldr 0.950
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
42%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
58%
STARS
--
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
VEGAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Vegas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around VGK -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VGK)
DAL By 1 goal
15.5%
DAL By 2-3 goals
14.5%
VGK By 1 goal
18.9%
VGK By 2-3 goals
23.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
2.33
DALLAS
Vegas
2.73
VEGAS
Simulated Score
Dallas
2
DALLAS
Vegas
3
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.4
C
Sim
Golden Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 22, 2026
VGK @ DAL
3 - 2
Mar 10, 2026
VGK @ DAL
1 - 2
Jan 29, 2026
DAL @ VGK
5 - 4
Jan 28, 2025
DAL @ VGK
4 - 3
Jan 24, 2025
VGK @ DAL
3 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+14.2% more
Vegas: 16.7
vs
Dallas: 14.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.4%
Vegas: 57.4%
vs
Dallas: 51.0%
Power Play % (L5)
+26.8%
Dallas: 31.9%
vs
Vegas: 5.1%
Takeaways (L5)
+21.4% more
Dallas: 6.7
vs
Vegas: 5.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
2.3
2
VGK Score
2.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.7 / 14.6
18.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
57.4 / 51.0
50.0 / 50.0
Hits
12.8 / 12.4
19.0 / 15.0
Power Play %
5.1 / 31.9
33.3 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.2 / 26.4
28.0 / 40.0
Takeaways
5.2 / 6.7
8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
DAL
VGK
DAL
ML
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
ATS
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
33%
1-2
TTL
25%
1-3
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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