BUFFALO
SABRESBUF
14-20-5 | Road
1
VEGAS
GOLDEN KNIGHTSVGK
26-9-3 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Mattias Samuelsson
#23 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Adin Hill
#33 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattias Samuelsson | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Adin Hill | None-None | 1.00 | 0.958 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
1.00
--
Save %
0.958
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SABRES
20%
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
80%
SABRES
--
GOLDEN KNIGHTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around BUF -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
BUF By 1 goal
19.7%
BUF By 2-3 goals
28.7%
VGK By 1 goal
12.6%
VGK By 2-3 goals
10.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Buffalo
3.8
BUFFALO
Vegas
2.88
VEGAS
Simulated Score
Buffalo
2
BUFFALO
Vegas
4
VEGAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Sabres
Loss
20% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Knights
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Sabres (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -0.9
C
Sim
Golden Knights (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 17, 2026
BUF @ VGK
2 - 0
Mar 3, 2026
VGK @ BUF
2 - 3
Mar 15, 2025
VGK @ BUF
3 - 4
Jan 4, 2025
BUF @ VGK
1 - 3
Mar 2, 2024
VGK @ BUF
2 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+30.4%
Buffalo: 36.5%
vs
Vegas: 6.1%
Hits (L5)
+22.6% more
Buffalo: 23.6
vs
Vegas: 18.2
Shots on Goal (L5)
+35.0% more
Vegas: 30.6
vs
Buffalo: 22.7
Takeaways (L5)
+16.2% more
Vegas: 4.5
vs
Buffalo: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BUF Score
3.8
1
VGK Score
2.9
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.9 / 15.3
17.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
50.3 / 43.9
42.6 / 57.4
Hits
18.2 / 23.6
19.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
6.1 / 36.5
0.0 / 33.3
Shots on Goal
30.6 / 22.7
33.0 / 24.0
Takeaways
4.5 / 3.9
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VGK
BUF
VGK
BUF
ML
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
TTL
25%
1-3
33%
1-2
50%
2-2
33%
1-2
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