Home / NFL Projections NFL / Buccaneers @ Saints TB @ NO

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

3-2  |  Road

51
FINAL
Sun, Oct 13 • 1:00 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

2-3  |  Home

27
Key Game
Chase McLaughlin
KEY GAME

Chase McLaughlin

#4 | Place kicker
@
Bryan Bresee
KEY GAME

Bryan Bresee

#90 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Chase McLaughlin None-None
Bryan Bresee None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
0%
📊
SAINTS
100%
BUCCANEERS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Tampa Bay)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

51.5%

Saints Cover

48.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TB -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

TB By 1-6 points

16.6%

TB By 7-13 points

15.8%

NO By 1-6 points

16.3%

NO By 7-13 points

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
26.2
TAMPA BAY
25.69
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
20
TAMPA BAY
24
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.5
D
Sim Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 51.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 NO @ TB 24 - 20
Oct 26, 2025 TB @ NO 23 - 3
Jan 5, 2025 NO @ TB 19 - 27
Oct 13, 2024 TB @ NO 51 - 27
Dec 31, 2023 NO @ TB 23 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.4% more
Tampa Bay: 118.7 vs New Orleans: 102.8
First Downs (L5) +12.8% more
Tampa Bay: 21.4 vs New Orleans: 18.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +12.2% more
Tampa Bay: 5.8 vs New Orleans: 5.1
Total Yards (L5) +11.4% more
Tampa Bay: 338.5 vs New Orleans: 300.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 26.2 51
NO Score 25.7 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 21.4 19.0 / 31.0
Net Passing Yards 197.3 / 219.8 222.0 / 317.0
Rushing Yards 102.8 / 118.7 81.0 / 277.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 300.1 / 338.5 303.0 / 594.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.9 3.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 5.8 4.6 / 8.2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
NO Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
NO Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
TB
NO
TB
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
100% 3-0-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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