Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Browns PIT @ CLE

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

8-2  |  Road

19
FINAL
Thu, Nov 21 • 8:15 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

2-8  |  Home

24
Key Game
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
@
Corey Bojorquez
KEY GAME

Corey Bojorquez

#13 | Punter
Player
Chris Boswell None-None
Corey Bojorquez None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
94%
📊
BROWNS
6%
STEELERS --
BROWNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.1
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.1 points (Pittsburgh)
SteelersPIT (-3.5) 0 BrownsCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

58.8%

Browns Cover

41.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around PIT -3.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-6 points

17.0%

PIT By 7-13 points

17.5%

CLE By 1-6 points

15.2%

CLE By 7-13 points

12.8%

AI Model Projected Score
21.16
PITTSBURGH
18.05
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
20
PITTSBURGH
23
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Steelers Loss
94% Win Prob
A
Sim Browns Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Steelers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.1
D
Sim Browns (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 PIT @ CLE 24 - 27
Dec 28, 2025 PIT @ CLE 6 - 13
Oct 12, 2025 CLE @ PIT 9 - 23
Dec 8, 2024 CLE @ PIT 14 - 27
Nov 21, 2024 PIT @ CLE 19 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +43.6% more
Pittsburgh: 138.4 vs Cleveland: 78.0
Net Passing Yards (L5) +41.5% more
Cleveland: 275.5 vs Pittsburgh: 194.6
Turnovers (L5) +10.3% more
Cleveland: 1.2 vs Pittsburgh: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 21.2 19
CLE Score 18.1 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.9 / 19.4 17.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 275.5 / 194.6 219.0 / 248.0
Rushing Yards 78.0 / 138.4 85.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.1 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 353.5 / 333.0 304.0 / 368.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.1 3.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 4.9 5.5 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
CLE Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
PIT
CLE
PIT
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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