Home / NFL Projections NFL / Chiefs @ Panthers KC @ CAR

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

9-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sun, Nov 24 • 1:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

3-7  |  Home

27
Key Game
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
@
Claudin Cherelus
KEY GAME

Claudin Cherelus

#53 | Linebacker
Player
Matt Araiza None-None
Claudin Cherelus None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHIEFS
95%
📊
PANTHERS
5%
CHIEFS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.1
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.1 points (Kansas City)
ChiefsKC (-3.5) 0 PanthersCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chiefs Cover

67.0%

Panthers Cover

33.0%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around KC -6.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-6 points

16.7%

KC By 7-13 points

19.0%

CAR By 1-6 points

13.4%

CAR By 7-13 points

10.3%

AI Model Projected Score
22.29
KANSAS CITY
16.14
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
17
KANSAS CITY
31
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chiefs Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chiefs (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.1
C
Sim Panthers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2024 KC @ CAR 30 - 27
Nov 8, 2020 CAR @ KC 31 - 33
Nov 13, 2016 KC @ CAR 20 - 17
Dec 2, 2012 CAR @ KC 21 - 27
Oct 5, 2008 KC @ CAR 0 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +29.8% more
Kansas City: 221.0 vs Carolina: 155.2
First Downs (L5) +28.4% more
Kansas City: 21.4 vs Carolina: 15.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Kansas City: 0.5 vs Carolina: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +11.4% more
Kansas City: 314.5 vs Carolina: 278.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 22.3 30
CAR Score 16.1 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.3 / 21.4 21.0 / 27.0
Net Passing Yards 155.2 / 221.0 249.0 / 226.0
Rushing Yards 123.5 / 93.5 85.0 / 165.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 278.7 / 314.5 334.0 / 391.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 4.9 5.8 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
KC
CAR
KC
ML
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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