DETROIT
LIONSDET
9-1 | Road
24
INDIANAPOLIS
COLTSIND
5-6 | Home
6
Key Game
KEY GAME
Jack Fox
#3 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Rigoberto Sanchez
#8 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Jack Fox | None-None |
| Rigoberto Sanchez | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
92%
COLTS
8%
LIONS
--
COLTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DET -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-6 points
16.5%
DET By 7-13 points
15.5%
IND By 1-6 points
16.4%
IND By 7-13 points
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
28.7
DETROIT
Indianapolis
28.55
INDIANAPOLIS
Simulated Score
Detroit
24
DETROIT
Indianapolis
27
INDIANAPOLIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Lions
Win
92% Win Prob
A
Sim
Colts
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Lions (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -0.1
C
Sim
Colts (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 57.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 29, 2026
DET @ IND
25 - 16
Nov 24, 2024
DET @ IND
24 - 6
Nov 1, 2020
IND @ DET
41 - 21
Sep 11, 2016
DET @ IND
39 - 35
Dec 2, 2012
IND @ DET
35 - 33
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5)
+31.2% more
Detroit: 25.5
vs
Indianapolis: 17.6
Rushing Yards (L5)
+29.5% more
Detroit: 153.4
vs
Indianapolis: 108.1
Total Yards (L5)
+26.9% more
Detroit: 434.7
vs
Indianapolis: 317.6
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+25.5% more
Detroit: 281.3
vs
Indianapolis: 209.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
28.7
24
IND Score
28.6
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
17.6 / 25.5
11.0 / 26.0
Net Passing Yards
209.4 / 281.3
172.0 / 253.0
Rushing Yards
108.1 / 153.4
96.0 / 137.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.5
0.25 / 0.6
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards
317.6 / 434.7
268.0 / 390.0
Turnovers
1.9 / 1.2
0.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play
5.2 / 6.6
5.5 / 5.4
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: -5.3
IND
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
0-3-1
(0.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: -5.3
IND
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0%
Total +/-: +10.0
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
DET
IND
DET
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
ATS
25%
1-3
33%
1-2-1
25%
1-3
67%
2-1-1
TTL
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
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